Baseline Marketplace, a 560,000-square-foot retail center anchored by an already-open Costco along with Target, Home Depot, Raising Cane’s, and seven drive-thru pads, is now under active construction along the Baseline Road corridor in west Roseville, with big-box construction that started in July 2026 following grading that began in May. First tenant openings beyond Costco are projected for early 2027. A center of this scale, built around three of the country’s most reliable big-box anchors, is one of the clearer bets on retail demand in the Sacramento region this year, arriving at the same time regional retail cap rates have been compressing.
What is Baseline Marketplace, and how big is it?
Baseline Marketplace is a 560,000-square-foot retail center along the Baseline Road corridor in west Roseville. The Planning Commission approved the project in August 2025, grading began in May 2026, and big-box construction started in July 2026. Costco is already open on the site, functioning as the project’s lead anchor while the rest of the center is built out around it, a sequencing that lets the center’s biggest traffic driver begin operating well before the balance of the project delivers.
Which tenants are confirmed, and when will they open?
Confirmed tenants beyond the open Costco include Target, Home Depot, and Raising Cane’s, along with seven drive-thru pad sites, a tenant mix weighted toward destination big-box retail and quick-service food that tends to perform reliably regardless of broader retail headwinds. First openings for the balance of the center beyond Costco are projected for early 2027, per reporting tracked through late August 2026.
Why does a project this size matter for west Roseville specifically?
A 560,000-square-foot center anchored by Costco, Target, and Home Depot is the kind of development that establishes a retail node other users plan around for years afterward. West Roseville has been building out steadily, and a center of this scale tends to pull additional smaller-format retail, restaurant, and service tenants to the surrounding parcels once it is stabilized, simply because of the daily traffic count the anchors generate. It is also notable that Roseville’s Commercial Corridors Incentive Programs, offering development impact fee credits of up to $500,000 per project and facade or frontage improvement rebates of up to $20,000 along other Roseville corridors, opened for applications in early 2026, a separate signal that the city is actively working to spur additional commercial investment beyond this single project.
How does Sacramento’s regional retail market look right now?
The regional retail data supports the timing. Kidder Mathews reports Sacramento MSA retail vacancy at 5.9%, up only 20 basis points year over year, with asking rent at $1.56 per square foot per month, up 4.52% year over year, year-to-date net absorption of positive 309,027 square feet, and an average cap rate of 6.0%, down 50 basis points year over year, alongside an average sale price of $278 per square foot, up 6.89% year over year. CBRE’s directional figure shows a higher 7.0% vacancy and negative 299,000 square feet of Q2 net absorption, a meaningfully different read that likely reflects methodology differences rather than a genuinely different market, and the two should not be averaged together. Either way, low vacancy combined with rising rent is a favorable backdrop for a large anchor-driven center opening into the market over the next several quarters.
What is happening elsewhere in Roseville’s commercial pipeline?
Baseline Marketplace is not an isolated bet on Roseville retail. The city’s broader office market posted 9.5% vacancy and $2.19 asking rent per square foot with 200,414 square feet of year-to-date leasing activity through Q2 2026, the second-most active office submarket in the metro by that measure. Roseville/Rocklin industrial similarly runs a tight 5.0% direct vacancy across 19.7 million square feet of inventory. Combined with the Commercial Corridors Incentive Programs noted above, Roseville is showing sustained investment interest across property types, not just retail.
Costco, Target, and Home Depot together form one of the more resilient anchor combinations in retail real estate, since all three draw destination trips that are relatively insulated from e-commerce substitution compared to soft goods or general merchandise categories. That combination is part of why big-box-anchored centers of this type have continued attracting institutional capital even in periods when in-line, smaller-shop retail has struggled to find the same investor appetite. What differentiates Baseline Marketplace specifically is the scale of committed big-box square footage delivering essentially at once, rather than phased in over several years, which tends to compress the timeline for the surrounding retail node to establish itself.
What should a retail investor or landowner nearby take from this?
For a retail investor, Baseline Marketplace is a useful marker of where institutional-grade anchor tenants are choosing to commit capital in the Sacramento region right now, and the compressing cap rate environment described above means comparable stabilized retail assets are trading at tighter yields than a year ago, a dynamic sellers should be aware of when weighing a disposition. For a landowner near the Baseline Road corridor, the center’s eventual stabilization is likely to increase interest in adjacent parcels from smaller retail and restaurant users looking to capture overflow traffic, though the timing and magnitude of that interest is impossible to predict with precision this far ahead of the center’s full opening.
What should a retail tenant or landlord near Baseline Marketplace factor into lease negotiations right now?
The regional numbers give both sides of a lease negotiation something to work with. Asking rent for Sacramento MSA retail is up 4.52% year over year, and vacancy remains low at 5.9%, a combination that generally favors landlords in rent negotiations, particularly for well-located space near a strong anchor. At the same time, cap rates compressing to 6.0% mean investors are paying more for stabilized retail income, which raises the bar for what a landlord needs a lease to produce in order to justify a future sale at a competitive price. For a tenant negotiating space near Baseline Marketplace before the center fully stabilizes, that combination argues for locking in term and rate sooner rather than waiting for the center’s full opening, when comparable nearby space is likely to command a premium tied directly to the anchor’s foot traffic. For a landlord, it argues for underwriting new leases with an eye toward how the completed rent roll will look to a future buyer, not just what the market will bear today.
Sacramento retail market snapshot, Q2 2026
| Metric | Kidder Mathews | CBRE (directional) |
|---|---|---|
| Vacancy | 5.9% (+20 bps YoY) | 7.0% |
| Asking rent | $1.56/SF/mo (+4.52% YoY) | $1.50/SF/mo NNN |
| Net absorption (Q2) | +309,027 SF (YTD) | -299,000 SF (Q2) |
| Average cap rate | 6.0% (-50 bps YoY) | Not reported |
| Average sale price | $278/SF (+6.89% YoY) | Not reported |
If you want a closer look at Roseville specifically, the market page is a starting point. The investment sales page covers how CLL approaches positioning a retail asset for sale, and the cap rate guide explains how a compressing cap rate environment affects pricing.
FAQ
What is Baseline Marketplace?
Baseline Marketplace is a 560,000-square-foot retail center under construction along the Baseline Road corridor in west Roseville, anchored by an already-open Costco alongside Target, Home Depot, Raising Cane’s, and seven drive-thru pad sites.
Which stores are confirmed for Baseline Marketplace?
Confirmed tenants include Costco, which is already open, along with Target, Home Depot, and Raising Cane’s, plus seven drive-thru restaurant pads.
When will Baseline Marketplace open?
Costco is already operating. First openings for the balance of the center are projected for early 2027.
How tight is Sacramento’s retail market right now?
Kidder Mathews reports Sacramento MSA retail vacancy at 5.9% for Q2 2026, with positive year-to-date net absorption and rents up 4.52% year over year, a generally healthy market, though CBRE’s directional figure of 7.0% vacancy shows the range depends on which brokerage’s methodology is used.
What else is being built nearby in Roseville?
Roseville’s office and industrial submarkets are both performing well relative to the region, and the city’s Commercial Corridors Incentive Programs, offering fee credits and facade rebates, opened for applications in early 2026 to encourage further commercial investment.
Is now a good time to invest in Roseville retail real estate?
Regional retail cap rates have compressed 50 basis points year over year to 6.0% per Kidder Mathews, meaning stabilized retail is trading at tighter yields than a year ago. Whether that makes now the right time depends on your specific goals, timeline, and the asset in question, and is worth discussing directly rather than deciding from headline data alone.
If you own retail property in west Roseville or elsewhere along the Baseline Road corridor and want to understand how a project of this scale could affect your asset’s value or leasing prospects, that is a conversation worth having before the center fully stabilizes. Call or text Matt at 916-513-0217, or book a 15-minute consultation at calendly.com/bingamanrealty/15-min-consultation.